Watch Out!!

Nearly, four years from the next election, I can already tell you who Democrats should be scared of. And he is from Utah. Utah you say? Yes, Utah. Thanks to Nate Silver for the initial read on Gov. Huntsman.

Barack Obama is the best political talent I have seen in a generation, but this guy, Gov. Huntsman may end up being his kryptonite. Check out this flawless Politico interview.

I will tell you right now, he wins the Republican primary with his eyes closed, if he is just a little smart and charismatic (and he seems to have plenty of both). The right may be mobilized in four years, but the country is moving to the center demographically. This combined with the fact that Moderate Democrats and Independents will not have a Democratic primary to vote it. Their participation drives up turnout and Huntsman wins the Republican primary in about two weeks time in 2012.

Right now nothing is clear, but Stanford and Jindal are fighting for the support of the far Right, and this will wind up being a mistake. This will concede the entire middle to Huntsman.

In January 2007, I predicted an Obama/McCain general election with an Obama win. I know because the person I bet took Clinton/Romney. Based on this its difficult to predict future trajectory, especially because the economic recovery is still in question and moves so rapidly. It was not until Katrina that President Bush's public stock took a turn down, then the second leg of the chair fell when the violence accelerated to historically terrible levels in the Summer of 2006.

For the current President the Summer of 2010 and the November 2010 election will set the stage for 2012, of course their could be curve balls after that just like the Lehman Failure and the bailout like this past election cycle.

The saddest part of this narrative is that legislating will come to a stand still after about March 2010.

The smart money is still on Obama for 2012 because the economy will probably be back to full-employment, but Gov. Huntsman could make a compelling case in 2012.